Ranking the top contenders at the 2025 Australian Open

Who are the Australian Open title favorites -- and who are the underdogs? We break it down.
Ara Bins · 6 days ago · 5 minutes read


2025 Australian Open Player Previews

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Jannik Sinner

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 65.9%

Despite a drug test debacle, Sinner has been a dominant force in tennis. He holds a number of titles, including the year-end ATP finals and three Masters 1000 events.

Aryna Sabalenka

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 23.6%

Sabalenka has also enjoyed tournament success in hard-court Slams, winning three titles and reaching the finals of four straight. She has overcome a shoulder injury and late-season upsets.

Carlos Alcaraz

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Novak Djokovic or No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 6.7%

Alcaraz has achieved remarkable success at a young age, including four Slam titles. However, he has struggled with inconsistency, raising questions about whether he can maintain his dominance.

Iga Swiatek

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Emma Navarro or No. 9 Daria Kasatkina (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 21.2%

Despite a "disappointing" year by her standards, Swiatek has remained a formidable player. She has hired a new coach and is looking to regain her hard-court prowess after shifting to clay-court dominance.

Coco Gauff

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 17.5%

Gauff has shown her upset-proof nature, winning her past 18 games. She is expected to face tough challenges in Sabalenka and Pegula, but her speed and resilience make her a contender.

Novak Djokovic

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (fourth round)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 13.0%

Djokovic has had a subpar season, but remains capable of claiming another Slam. He has added former coach Andy Murray to his team, hinting that he is not yet ready to retire.

Only Need a Few Breaks

Elena Rybakina

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Danielle Collins (fourth round)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 7.2%

Rybakina is a strong competitor but has struggled with inconsistency. She recently parted ways with her coach amidst rumors of player mistreatment.

Alexander Zverev

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Casper Ruud (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 5.3%

Zverev achieved the best year of his career in 2024, reaching the French Open final and Australian Open semifinals. His lack of aggression against top players may be a liability at this level.

Daniil Medvedev

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (fourth round)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 3.5%

Medvedev has been surpassed by younger players but remains a dangerous opponent. His wingspan and defensive capabilities make him tough to beat, especially on hard courts.

Zheng Qinwen

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 8.5%

Zheng is a rising star who could potentially threaten the established favorites. She has developed her all-court game and is looking to make a breakthrough in Melbourne.

Taylor Fritz

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 1.6%

Fritz has slowly risen in the rankings and is now a top-10 player. He has finished as a runner-up in both the US Open and Tour finals, but has yet to break through for a Slam title.

Karolina Muchova

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth round)
  • Tennis Abstract odds: 2.3%

Muchova is a gifted player who hits the ball cleanly. She has overcome injuries to reach the US Open semis and Beijing finals. Her potential was on display at the recent United Cup.

Two-Time Champions

Naomi Osaka

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth round)
  • ESPN BET odds: +5000

Osaka has faced challenges since returning to the tour following childbirth. She flashed potential but went only 22-18 last year. She stated that she will "won't hang around" if results don't improve.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex de Minaur (fourth round)
  • ESPN BET odds: +3300

Tsitsipas has enjoyed success at the Australian Open in the past, reaching the semifinals and finals. However, he has struggled on hard courts, winning just four matches over the past three Slams. His form has declined.

The 22-and-Unders

Mirra Andreeva

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth round)
  • ESPN BET odds: +2800

Andreeva is a rising star who already has a top-15 ranking at the age of 17. She defeated Sabalenka at the French Open last year and has shown impressive consistency.

Diana Shnaider

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (fourth round)
  • ESPN BET odds: +4000

Shnaider is another young player to watch, known for her unique style and lefty game. She has already reached the third round at Wimbledon and the fourth round at the US Open.

Joao Fonseca

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (first round)
  • ESPN BET odds: +25000

Fonseca, an 18-year-old Brazilian, is expected to be a future star. He won the Next Generation ATP Finals and is a top-30 player in the Tennis Abstract Elo rankings. He faces a tough opening match against Rublev.

The Comeback Kids

Nick Kyrgios

  • First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alexander Zverev (third round)